What’s Going On? – 20/8/15

So what’s going on at Griffin Park as bemused Brentford supporters anxiously await the puff of white smoke that will finally confirm the departure of Andre Gray and the inevitable conclusion to what has developed into a never ending saga that has dragged on for several weeks now?

On the face of it the evidence is damning as Gray will be just one more addition to what now seems to be a massive and increasing exodus of players from Griffin Park since the end of last season.

Alex Pritchard, Jon Toral, Richard Lee, Tommy Smith, Alfie Mawson, Nick Proschwitz, Will Grigg, Stuart Dallas, Tony Craig, Jonathan Douglas, Moses Odubajo are the others who are no longer with us, and there have now been massive changes and upheavals to the settled squad that ended the season just a few short months ago in May.

However it is only when you look at all the departures in greater detail and analyse the reason for each one that you can obtain a full understanding of what has been going on.

Richard Lee retired as also did Kevin O’Connor and Smith and Proschwitz were both deemed surplus to our requirements. Grigg too was not thought to be the answer to our needs up front despite his rehabilitation at MK Dons last season and to obtain a cool million pounds from Wigan for a player who has never found his feet at our club was surely good business on our part – if not an inspired purchase in the first place.

Alex Pritchard’s future was simply out of our hands as the loanee returned in triumph to his parent club, Spurs. Would that we were able to find a way to spirit him back to Griffin Park as his influence is sadly missed which is hardly surprising given how talented he is and how effective he was at playing the killer pass that opened up the opposition defence.

Jon Toral also returned to Arsenal after his loan spell, although there were certainly rumours that we had tried to retain his services either on loan or a permanent basis and I confess that it came as a real surprise to me when he joined Birmingham. It is open to question whether he would have played sufficiently often for us as a loan player to have kept Arsenal happy but I was half-expecting that he would become a permanent Brentford player as he would have been an excellent addition to the squad.

Alfie Mawson simply and understandably felt that he would not get a look-in at Griffin Park and joined Barnsley for whom he scored his first goal at Millwall on Tuesday night.

Stuart Dallas was another who felt that he would receive more opportunities elsewhere given that he was seen more as a valuable substitute rather than as an automatic first choice at Brentford. The fee of around one and a quarter million pounds represented a massive return on the sum paid by the club to Crusaders but I suspect that his value might well increase in coming years as he gains more experience, and hopefully our interests are protected with a sell-on clause.

The Jonathan Douglas situation has been discussed to death on message boards recently and I would agree that his influence was waning on the pitch and that he was unlikely to reconcile himself to becoming a bit part player. His departure was therefore the best solution for all parties although I still feel that he has yet to be replaced adequately particularly given Josh McEachran’s injury. Tony Craig was another who needed to leave with our gratitude for services rendered over the past three years.

Our hands were then completely tied regarding the loss of star fullback Moses Odubajo to Hull City as a three and a half million pound release clause had been inserted into his contract in order to ensure that he joined us in the first place from Leyton Orient a year ago, at a time when bigger fish were also sniffing around him.

Hull offered us the money and we could not get anywhere close to competing with them in terms of the wages they were able to offer him given the income they have received from their spell in the Premier League plus the massive parachute payments they are currently in receipt of.

It pains me to admit it but we are still small fry and remain well down the football totem pole. We are totally stymied and our growth is restricted by the limited capacity and lack of resources of Griffin Park and I understand that our income is in the bottom three of all twenty-four Championship teams.

No wonder we are losing our stars to clubs who can pay them better. We might say that we are bigger than say Hull City or even Bristol City, but we are deluding ourselves to even think that that is really the case. Maybe in years to come once we have moved into our new stadium at Lionel Road and reached the Premier League, or even stabilised in the top half of the Championship, we can then match what is being offered by others to our top players but for the time being we simply have to accept facts as they are.

We are on more than a stepping stone and a proving ground where players receive a platform and the necessary support and encouragement to thrive, shine and improve. The best of them will then be picked off by bigger clubs than us who will certainly offer higher wages and perhaps even a better professional opportunity.

Footballers have a short career and an even shorter window of opportunity. Today’s budding star is tomorrow’s broken leg or free transfer and I would never blame any footballer for chasing the main chance and following the money trail.

Let’s assume that Andre Gray is earning around four thousand pounds per week at Brentford. This is a guess and I might well be miles out in my figure. Bristol City then come in and offer to pay him perhaps sixteen thousand pounds per week. What can he be expected to do in the circumstances? What would you do if you were offered the same choice?

I will tell you what will happen with Gray if you haven’t already worked it out for yourself – he will quickly get his agent to see if a higher profile club is prepared to pay Brentford the required fee and either match or better the salary on offer.

If nothing else is forthcoming then he will surely sign for Bristol City as he cannot afford to allow such an incredible financial opportunity to perhaps quadruple his salary to slip through his hands. Nor should he be expected to. Loyalty for, and love of the club is for us supporters, not professional footballers. They have to look after Number One.

Let’s now look at the situation for Brentford. Bristol City have apparently had an offer of nine million pounds accepted, perhaps seven million pounds down and an additional two million pounds dependent upon performance. Let me just repeat those figures and allow them to sink in. Seven million pounds down and an additional two million pounds dependent upon performance. This for a player we bought for around six hundred thousand pounds a year or so ago. Ideally there is also a sell-on clause included too. This is double the previous record fee received for a player!

If we turn down an offer of this magnitude we risk having a disgruntled player on our hands whose value could quickly spiral downwards.

Similarly, promising young players are happy to join us as they are secure in the knowledge that they will be in the shop window at Griffin Park and it becomes a win/win situation for all parties. We sign players who might otherwise have spurned us and we also benefit from the transfer fees that we eventually receive when they move on.

Should the Gray deal go through then we will have taken in over twelve and a half million pounds in transfer fees this summer with the potential of further payments to come.

The Brentford model is very simple and straightforward. We utilise our proprietary statistics and mathematical modelling techniques to identify hot young prospects who have either been ignored or undervalued by our rivals. We buy low then sell high once another club has reached our valuation of the player. Every player without exception is for sale assuming we receive adequate compensation.

The key though is what we do with all the money we receive. We are not asset stripping or hoarding the cash as some critics have asserted, and the money taken in is not siphoned off to pay off debt. Yes, some will go to endure that we remain within the stringent requirements of Financial Fair Play but the the majority is reinvested in the squad. The more money we bring in from player sales the more we can spend on investing in new talent.

Last year we sold Adam Forshaw and spent over a million pounds each on Moses Odubajo and Jota and around half that sum on Gray and Scott Hogan. Now we have upgraded exponentially as the money we have received from our outgoing players has enabled us to invest around six million pounds on the likes of Andreas Bjelland, Lasse Vibe, Philipp Hofmann, Josh McEachran, Yoann Barbet, Maxine Colin and Konstantin Kerschbaumer. There is also talk of us trying to bring in another four players before the transfer window shuts at the end of the month. That is a very tight deadline and we will do well to get suitable players in by that time and other clubs will also try and take advantage of our situation and charge us a premium.

The more we bring in, the more we can spend – it is a very simple formula. This year we spent over two million pounds, easily a club record fee, on Bjelland, and maybe very soon, given the extra transfer sums that have been received, we will be in a position to spend even more money on a player.

The problem is that the pressure is always on us to keep unearthing more and more uncut gems so that the conveyor belt can keep moving. It is far too early to say how successful any of our new signings will turn out to be and it is perhaps one of the cheaper newcomers, Andy Gogia, who might well turn out to be the most valuable, if he meets our expectations and turns out to be as good as is anticipated. With serious expenditure comes serious risk. Not all our signings will come off and some will fail to perform as well as expected.

Will Grigg turned out to be a total bust for us, but in the end we succeeded in more than doubling our total investment in him when we sold him to MK Dons. It was a close run thing though, as at one time it seemed that we might well lose a significant sum on him, but thankfully he performed well on loan at MK Dons last season which enabled us to set and obtain a fee for him that a year or so ago seemed highly improbable.

We have now spent heavily on seven players in recent weeks, and the more we spend the more we can lose as well as gain. Thankfully the analysts seem to have got it right far more often than not up to now but there will be increasing pressure on them to keep doing so as the stakes get even higher.

There is also concern that there are too many moves and changes taking place in too short a time, particularly when you also take into account the number of injuries we have recently been incurring – and not just any old minor injury, but serious long-term ones that have incapacitated the likes of Bjelland, McEachran and Jota. To some degree there has been little that we can do as most of the injuries occurred late on in the close season or in the first couple of matches of the new season at a time when most of the player sales, with the exception of Moses and perhaps now Gray, should he finally leave us, had already been completed. I see that as bad luck rather than poor planning however I feel for the new Head Coach as in many ways he has been handed a poisoned chalice as well as a massive opportunity.

Marinus Dijkhuizen has certainly got massive support off the field in terms of his coaching and specialist staff and he has indubitably been provided with all the potential tools with which to do the job, in terms of the number and quality of new players who have arrived. However his planning must have been hindered firstly by the unprecedented number of injuries, secondly by the Griffin Park and Jersey Road pitch fiascos and now by players being sold around him, admittedly for all the good reasons previously provided, at a time well after he had presumably completed his preseason preparations with his original squad and had already made decisions upon his best team.

Assuming Gray leaves and given the current injury crisis, it is anticipated that there will be yet a further influx of new players, plus of course Maxime Colin, into the squad over the next couple of weeks. All well and good certainly, as we are really short of numbers at present and this will also provide evidence indeed of the club’s determination to keep strengthening but it falls on the Head Coach to integrate yet more players into his squad – no easy task once the season has already started and the games come thick and fast.

The supporters are slowly warming to Dijkhuizen and appreciate his tactical flexibility, phlegmatic approach in accepting how things are and his bravery in terms of switching players and formation when things are not initially working out on the field. He will need patience and an understanding of the task and obstacles that he is currently facing but the omens are good for him and I feel that he has made an excellent start in what is a challenging new job.

We have to trust in the strategy employed by the club as it is the only sensible one given our financial constraints and it is surely the one that will continue to allow us to punch well above our weight and outperform clubs who are far richer but perhaps not as smart, brave or well informed as we are.

Given less radical changes since the end of last season and a bit more stability I would have been confident that we could have kicked on from even last season’s incredible fifth place achievement. Now I think we will need to retrench, regroup and allow our new group of players and coaches to bed in and settle down. We hoped for promotion, and still do, but now I think, despite what must obviously be a far higher playing budget than last season, that we will probably have to settle for consolidation.

It is still far too early to say whether we will be successful this season, or if we have perhaps bitten off more than we can chew. We have certainly been singleminded and relentless in pursuit of our goal but I would question whether we have attempted to do too much to soon and if evolution rather than revolution might have paid greater dividends. Matthew Benham is certainly a risk taker but he is only a taker of considered and educated gambles and we must believe in him and his team, accept a few growing pains and the vicissitudes of ill fortune and hope that the season turns out well.

Good communication is also essential. It really helps to reassure us when we are kept in the loop by the club. We were recently given helpful updates regarding the pitch repair and also the current injury situation which helped inform us and set minds at rest. I understand that a Fans’ Forum is planned for the near future. I appreciate that Matthew Benham is never one to seek the limelight and make public utterances but in this case, given the circumstances, his presence would be massively reassuring as it would be extremely helpful to hear things straight from the horse’s mouth.

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17 thoughts on “What’s Going On? – 20/8/15

  1. Insightful as ever, Greville. Would certainly agree that consolidation is required, and that with the influx of new players the opportunity arises to mesh them into a potent force, once (hopefully) the injury situation improves. Also agree that the updates on the pitch and injury situation are a welcome change in communication, and hope that they are continued periodically.

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  2. Fantastic post Greville. A properly considered, long term / long game article. I am not so sure that we are still considered a ‘stepping stone’ anymore, due to Benhams revolutionary ideas.. maybe more of a championship enigma, with poachable players, though – as we keep building, this will change.

    Happy to sit and ride this journey out instead of rushing it. Lets back the players, lets back Marinus and #InBenhamWeTrust

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  3. Always a great read and today’s edition does raise a few areas where i’d like to challenge you a little. Always in a friendly manner as I know we share the some love for this amazing football club – or folk club as Marinus now calls it.

    Firstly, I accept that BFC are financially one of the smaller clubs in the top 2 divisions, we can’t allow this to become a litany for failure though. Firstly we have a very wealthy owner, whilst his generosity should not be taken for granted I doubt he’ll see us as financial lightweights in this league. We also have a growing fan-base, increased commercial income and a new stadium on the horizon, that I believe we will fill. We are a big club to those in L1 and L2, we have to do what is being done to us and find / take their better players. I don’t see much evidence of this right now, we are doing our work in Continental Europe – i’d like us to find another Andre. Moses and alike here.

    Sure we have to be prudent and there this outbreak of madness amongst our rivals at the moment as they chase next year’s new Sky Prem monies – leave them to it and if crazy money is offered for our players which we cannot match then let’s do the deals and get as much in for them as possible, then reinvest. Smart work here can bridge the income gap to some extent, Bournemouth and others have made it work!

    Then we come to those magical stats, not mentioned so much in the piece today, but i’ll simply pose the question… How many of our summer signings have been made based on the new analytical stats based formula -not a complaint just really interested to know? I have my doubts and would imagine that the pace of change has forced compromises here.

    Then to communication, firstly I give huge credit to Mark Devlin for the work he does and the way he communicates – under his watch we are way better than ever before in areas he touches. As for the rest – woefully inadequate and worse than ever in my view. With all this change and uncertainty a few reassuring words and an update on “the plan” from the top would go a long way. I know that MB isn’t seeking the role of “gobby” attention seeking owner or front man – no issue with that, but someone needs to step up, also to give more public help and support to Marinus. What have we heard so far, nothing from the Chairman,nothing from the DoF who achieved much notoriety as a master communicator and motivational speaker. A little more from DoF no 2 – our very own Alan Turing (Mr Giles), usually with fairly clumsy remarks. And that’s it. come on guys – some “Churchillian” positivity is needed here and now, something we can all get behind – is it so much to ask or are we just too needy?

    Finally on to Andre – luckily MB won’t get mugged off here, to my addled brain he wants out and wants to go to Hull City, he was at their game on Sunday. We have the fee we want but not from them. now I truly hope that Andre stays with us, but now doubt it very much, and we have to be wary of Bruce and Hull playing games to let this run on and on to weaken our hand, also for “someone” to suggest to Andre that he make himself unavailable for selection due to the “stress” of it all. I hope Andre is better than this, but either way I think they will all meet their match in our Mr Benham.

    Still a work in progress and much to improve upon, but BFC are rising – get used to it people.

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    • Thanks. Really interesting conversation comments. Ok, to answer your points. I was totally in favour of signing young lower division talent as we did last year and it worked well. I’m surprised we haven’t done the same again. Perhaps there aren’t the players around who’re good enough and maybe the club feels we can but better value abroad for less money?
      I suspect that all seven of our foreign signings are stats based. Who the hell had ever heard of any of them previously?
      As for communication we need to hear something from the top of the tree and hopefully the Fans’ Forum will present the opportunity to do so.

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  4. An excellent post as ever. Could we possibly imagine say 3 years ago purchasing players for 600K and then selling on for 9 million around a year later ? We do have a small squad and a horrendous injury list but hopefully just round the corner Mr Lewis McLeod will be making his long awaited debut ! If he is as good as they say he is then we are in for a treat.

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  5. It’s a real shame about Gray – he has obviously had a very production summer/pre-season and come back a better, stronger player who could score 30 goals in a season.

    As to everything else, who is pulling the strings at BFC? If as seems likely it’s Matthew Benham, it would be good if he could tell us ‘what’s going on’. But PR has never been his strength!

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  6. great stuff greville but i think even us supporters should be thinking diffrently if we as a club want to push on from last year and i do not mean throwing the cash around Yes great we are selling and buying plays and beating our record of transfer but we are not that little old Brentford we are a championship team which showed last year we desserve to be in this league ok we need ground to go with our status ect but we are in this championship so lets make the most to stay there or dare i say go further this is the best time in years to etablish BFC in the higher tiers of football our stay there so i hope we give the COACHING Team what they need and have no regrets and at the end of season as we all know in football things go so qiickly

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  7. That’s an excellent analysis.

    I do feel a little sorry for Dijkhuizen as he has made two or three references to the fact that he is ‘only the Head Coach’ and yet he is getting plagued during every interview with questions about transfers, incoming players, etc. I understand the questions have to be asked and we all want the answers but I do think he’s been left a bit exposed. He made a rueful ‘at last’ comment when asked about football matters during a recent interview.

    To the outsider, he’s Brentford’s manager and is being treated as such. The Evening Standard last night started their article by saying that “Dijkhuizen will be allowed to spend the whole £8 million…”

    If the club really want to hammer home the message about the new structure, I do think there needs to be a bit more effort to include some of the decision-makers in the necessary public part of the process – and I don’t really mean Matthew Benham.

    The way the new set-up was announced, I’d have almost expected the Head Coach to do the pre-match and post-match interviews only – and leave all the other stuff to someone else!

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      • Good stuff Mark – what you said x 10 IMHO.

        Anyway I’ve just seen a pic of our chairman at St Mary’s last night sporting a BFC / FCM half / half scarf. The game has gone! I need to be restrained…..

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